Strange Scenario Behavior in SLEUTH

Dear All,

I have three scenarios;

  1. Only water and military areas under protection
  2. Water and military areas under 100% protection. Agricultural and forest areas under 60% and 80% protection respectively.
  3. Water, miltary, agricultural and forest areas under 100% protection.

After I get the results I’ve recoded the results and derived a binary map from the probabilty maps. Pixels with urbanization possibility greater then 90% accepted as urbanized. Stats are like;

First Scenario;

Year Urban pixels Urban percent Area covered (km2)
2050 835349 39.2 751.8141

Second Scenario;

Year Urban pixels Urban percent Area covered (km2)
2050 939238 44.18 845.3142

Third Scenario;

Year Urban pixels Urban percent Area covered (km2)
2050 765783 36 689.2047

What seemed strange to me is; how the second scenario could have more urbanization than the first scenario ?

In the seconds scenario more areas under protection isn’t this weird ?

Am I missing a point about the model behavior ?

Thank you !

Hüseyin

 

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